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INDUSTRIAL PROFILE <HEADLINE> Growth of China's real estate to slow down <BYLINE> Shi Liu <TEXT> The Chinese Government has published a series of policies and measures on strengthening construction of low-cost housing and curbing investment-oriented purchase of housing in order to adjust housing supply structure and stabilize housing prices. China's central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) have jointly issued the circular on strengthening credit control of real estate and the supplementary circular on strengthening credit control of real estate, which make clear requirements for commercial banks on control of loans for real estate projects. Under the joint effects of various macro regulatory measures, although the general selling price of housing in China has still been high, the price growth of housing in some cities has slowed down. The fast growth of China's real estate industry is expected to slow down this year. In 2007, China's investment in real estate development reached RMB 2.5 trillion, surging 30.2% year on year, and the growth was 8.4 percentage points higher than the growth in the previous year, and 5.4 percentage points higher than the growth of the country's fixed asset investment. Of this, investment in residential buildings topped RMB1.8 trillion, rising 32.1%, which accounted for 71.2% of the total investment, rising one percentage point year on year; investment in residential buildings with per unit area of less than 90 square metres accounted for 16.6% of the total investment in residential buildings, rising 5.2 percentage points over the previous year; and investment in low-price housing was RMB83.38 billion, up 19.7% year on year, and accounting for 3.3 percent of the total. The robust growth of investment in real estate development is stimulated by the strong market demand for residential housing. The growth of completed housing is still slower than the sales growth. In 2007, China's area of completed housing was 580 million square metres, up 4.3%; and sales area was 760 million square metres, up 23.2%. The growth of completed areas was 18.9 percentage points lower than that of sales area, and the growth gap was 6.1 percentage points as compared with the previous year. At the same time, areas of housing under construction was 2.36 billion square metres, up 21.1% year on year, and four percentage points higher than the growth over the previous year. Areas of housing lying idle reached 130 million square metres at the end of 2007, down 8% year on year, including 67.56 million square metres of residential buildings, down 16.6%. China's selling price of housing rose sharply last year to 5.6%, 6.3%, 8.2% and 10.2% in the four quarters of 2007 respectively, but the growing momentum cooled down at the end of the year. The housing selling price hiked 10.5% in December last year, about the same as the previous month or up 0.2%, and down 0.6 percentage points from the same period in the previous year. Except Urumqi and Beihai cities which still kept high growth of price, 22 cities of the country's 70 large and medium-sized cities reported negative growth in selling price of housing. The commercial real estate loans made fast increases throughout the year, but the growth in the fourth quarter slowed down. By the end of 2007, outstanding of commercial real estate loans reached RMB4.8 trillion, increasing RMB1.1261 trillion over the beginning of the year or 30.6%, and the growth was 8.5 percentage points higher than the growth of 2006. Of this, outstanding loans for real estate development was RMB1.8 trillion, rising RMB361.3 billion or 25.7% over the beginning of the year, but down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year; and outstanding loans for housing purchase was RMB3 trillion, increasing RMB762.2 billion over the beginning of the year or 33.6%, and the growth was 14.6 percentage points over the previous year. Thanks to the slack winter season for construction and the state's tight monetary policy, the growth of real estate loans slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2007, with the new loans increased by RMB185.8 billion, which was 50% of that of the previous quarter. Of this, new loans for real estate development was RMB12.2 billion, and new private loans for housing purchase was RMB159.6 billion, rising 12.5% and 60% over the previous quarter. |
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<欄目> 行業分析 <標題> 房地產行業增速將有所放緩 <記者> 石柳 <正文> 為調整住房供應結構，穩定住房價格，去年以來，中國政府出台了一系列加大國家保障性住房建設、抑制投資性住房需求的政策措施。央行和銀監會共同發佈了《關 於加強商業性房地產信貸管理的通知》和《關於加強商業性房地產信貸管理的補充通知》，對商業銀行進一步加強商業性房地產信貸管理提出了明確要求。在各項宏 觀調控政策的共同作用下，中國房屋銷售價格總體漲幅依然較高，但部分城市房價漲幅已出現趨緩跡象。預計今年房地產行業增速將有所放緩。 去年中國房地產開發投資達到2.5萬億元(人民幣，下同)，比上年增長30.2%，增速比上年提高8.4個百分點，高於固定資產投資增速5.4個百分點。 其中，商品住宅投資1.8萬億元，增長32.1%，佔開發投資總量的71.2%，佔比比上年增加1個百分點；90平方米以下住房投資佔16.6%，比年初 提高5.2個百分點；經濟適用住房完成投資833.8億元，增長19.7%，佔開發投資總量的3.3%。 房地產開發投資的高速增長源於住房需求依然旺盛，商品房竣工增速仍然低於銷售增速，2007年，中國商品房竣工面積5.8億平方米，增長4.3%；銷售面 積7.6 億平方米，增長23.2%。竣工增速比銷售增速低18.9個百分點，增速差比上年擴大6.1個百分點。同時，商品房施工面積23.6億平方米，比上年增長 21.1%，增速加快4個百分點。年末，全國商品房空置面積1.3億平方米，比上年末減少8%；其中，空置商品住宅6,756萬平方米，比上年減少 16.6%。 去年中國房屋銷售價格上漲兇猛，1－4季度房屋銷售價格同比分別上漲5.6%、6.3%、8.2%和10.2%，但年末上漲勢頭有所減緩，12月份全國房 屋銷售價格同比上漲10.5%，漲幅與11月份持平，環比上漲0.2%，比11月份降低0.6個百分點；除了烏魯木齊、北海等城市同比漲幅繼續較高外， 70個大中城市中已有22個城市房屋銷售價格出現環比負增長。 商業性房地產貸款全年持續快速增長，但第四季度增速已明顯減緩。截至2007年末，全國商業性房地產貸款餘額4.8萬億元，比年初增加11,261億元， 增長30.6%，增速比上年提高8.5個百分點。其中，房地產開發貸款餘額1.8萬億元，比年初增加3,613億元，增長25.7%，增速比上年低1.3 個百分點；購房貸款餘額3萬億元，比年初增加7,622億元，增長33.6%，增速比上年快14.6個百分點。 受冬季不宜開工、施工等季節因素和實施從緊貨幣政策等有關政策因素影響，2007年四季度房地產貸款增速回落，新增貸款1,858億元，僅為上季度的 50%。其中，房地產開發貸款新增122億元，個人住房貸款新增1,596億元，分別僅為上季度的12.5%和60%。 |